Curiously I felt embarassed succumbing to the urge to attend the Peters presentation to the Privileges Committee. I thought it could be like being caught peering at the aftermath of a car crash.

Instead being here has been healthy. There’s no sneaking sympathy. The familiar muddle of bombast, wheedle, fact, wild accusation, evasion, and circumstantial imagination is a curing reminder of how a superb liar can corrupt process and bully authorities into failing to uphold the law, let alone ethical standards.

The process is a good reminder of why slow and deliberate court discipliness protect the truth.

The Labour candidate for Wellington Central might be a right wing splittist, biting the hand (left faction) that fed him for so long in H Clark’s office. 

At a candidate meeting on 2 September he explicitly endorsed the policy of selling state houses as long as it was to their tenants and the proceeds went into more houses.

But that is now forbidden "privatisation" according to Housing Minister Maryan Street. She was condemning National’s housing policy,  which is:

Allow state house tenants to buy the house they live in, and maintain the state housing stock by reinvesting all money from these sales in replacement houses.

Will the folk at St Joseph’s who were reassured by Labour’s fervent ‘me too’  last week now have to worry which faction of Labour wins the coming power struggle?

I have some hesitation in recording this, because that affirmation from the Labour candidate was a welcome oasis  in a desert of  platitudes. I worry about discouraging him from venturing real policy  views in future.

Jon Johansson on Campbell Live this evening had a theory to compete with the one I illustrated 10 days ago.

To him H Clark is not joined at the hip to W Peters by the terrible fear of what he can disclose about her  should she leave him to his fate. No, to Mr Johansson she is frozen because she is "wedded to the notion of natural justice".

So the woman who opined that the Waitara Police who shot Steven Wallace  were racist, before she knew any of the circumstances (including that the officer who fired the shots was Maori), the woman who dumped Dover Samuels before the Police had even started their investigation, the woman who damned the Exclusive Brethren (known to her as the chinless scarf wearers) and trashed our electoral free speech to "stop their threat to democracy" is now merely displaying her indissoluble committment to natural justice and due process.

And in case you don’t buy that theory, Mr Johansson had another for TV 3’s audience. H Clark has simply developed an extraordinary friendship with Peters, which is in turn evidence of her "unbelievable adaptability" to use Mr Johansson’s words.

Ubelievable is right.

Try Occam’s Razor Mr Johansson. The simplest explanation is usually the best.

She is sticking by him because things will be worse for her if she does not.

Mr Williams is so familiar he can invite himself to Glenn’s yacht looking for more money in June this year, notwithstanding that infamous day when the PM repaid Glenn’s generosity to Labour by shunning him at the launch of his Auckland University business school endowment. Glenn has been an integral part of Labour’s plans for some time. It is inconceivable that his help to Peters was unknown to Clark. But even if we accept her pretence, it is unforgiveable not to test with Glenn directly Peter’s alleged denials on a matter so ethically important.

Mr Johansson should be asked to opine on the theory that  Clark is sticking by W Peters because he will expose her complicity in breaching electoral finance law if she does not.

It is less fanciful than the postulated sudden conversion to "natural justice", or "ubelievable flexibility" in her choice of friends.

The Wellington Central Labour candidate has been asking the public for hoarding sites. Nothing wrong with that – he needs them.

But his hoarding organiser appears to be a senior EPMU official, whose contact email address is his work address.

That is the same EPMU that is sacking a staff member with the termerity to stand for ACT, on the grounds that he would be distracted from his duties.

It is also the same EPMU as was registered by the Electoral Commission as a "third party" with its own $120k spending limit,  addtional to and independent of the Labour Party. The Electoral Commission decided that the EPMU was not involved in the administration of the Labour Party, despite Andrew Little’s office holding in the party.

See Whale Oil for more detail and Kiwiblog.

Shortly we’ll know whether New Zealanders are more honest or more perceptive when they have money riding on their predictions, than when answering pollsters.

IPredict formally launched its market yesterday. It is operated by a subsidiary of Victoria University of Wellington. It allows kiwis to do what US, Australian and UK citizens have been  able to do for a long time – that is lay internet bets on the outcome of events like elections.

IPredict has been ensnared in New Zealand’s nanny law thicket for months as the Securities Commission worked on the  exemptions that  allow IPredict to operate.

The problem is law that favours unproductive gambling and bans productive gambling (informal investment offerings). I posted on this issue in July, and last week. Though the Commission process seemed endless, Commission staff deserve credit for facilitating the market. If they had not been willing to help, IPredict would still be stymied by gambling law.

Prediction or wagering markets can predict uncertain future events more reliably than opinion polling. That is not mysterious. Whether out of  politeness, a desire to please, or fear of retribution for unpopular views, many people polled say what they think they ought to say, instead of what they really think. The secrecy of the ballot box then allows them to vote as they really want, rather than as they’re expected to vote.

But in prediction markets people back their judgment with money.  Accordingly they put effort into working out the difference between what they, and other people, and the media, say and what they really think.  And their collective judgment tends to be an astoninshingly accurate indicator of what will actually happen, when an outcome depends on what people actually think. 

These kinds of markets are getting a great deal of academic attention. But the interest is not only academic, because its fun to pit your judgment and money against others’ judgment and money.

Whale Oil blogged on two websites targetting the New Zealand market. His second post noted the advantages of one established by some keen Auckland students, over a sophisticated product appearing to come from Germany.

Now New Zealanders can legally bet with an establishment New Zealand institution on the outcome of this year’s election, among other uncertainties.

Disclosure of interest – I’ve been among the lawyers advising  IPredict during its long wade in the regulatory  swamp. I’ve also traded for months on IPredict during its beta testing using "funny money". I do not know how many of us were trading during that period, but I was well ranked in the league table. I made special gains out of a contract on whether petrol would be over $2-00 per litre on 31 July.

The large room at Te Puni Kokiri was full of big men of impressive bearing at the launch of this book by former West Coasters Bernie Wood and John Coffey. Former League greats and their descendants make for an imposing crowd.

I attended in my capacity as WRL Chairman. The two pakeha authors and I were among the smallest men in the room.

Bernie showed a slide show of material turned up by their research, including photos of the Welshman who gave his name to the the (Willie, June, Moana) Jackson clan after absconding from the homeward leg of an England and Wales Rugby Union tour. He was sent home early after being outed for having played a couple of games of the forbidden League.

There was also laughter from the crowd at a 1 1/2 minute fragment of a Maori Rugby League team haka and few phases of play filmed in the early 1920s in Australia. The ‘traditional’ haka as we know it at the beginning of a game has certainly evolved since then.

At $55 (launch price) the coffee table size book is a steal for fans. They benefit from the sponsorship of  TPK, the Lottery Grants Board, Pub charity and the Ministry for Culture and Heritage. Huia Publishers have created a worthy monument.

A time must come when this election becomes as simple as the decision shareholders make when their company is failing while competitors are thriving.

Damaging managers can be brilliant at managing "shareholder relations". They win communicator prizes. If the management team gang up effectively, even the directors will not know for years how bad they are. But finally shareholders get sick of excuses and promises for the future. They sack ‘the devil they know’ when the bottom line can’t be ignored. 

Labour has been outstanding at political management. Political journalists admire those self-preservation skills, and may assume that they signify similar skill in management. Labour’s dearth of constructive management ability has also been masked by hiring thousands of extra staff. In some areas despite the extras and despite spending 40% more overall, less is now acheived than before (e.g. health and education).

In business the lack of skill is uncovered in the end. The boss who lacks experience and simple business management skills is eventually uncovered by competitive failure.

Headlines from the last three days’ newspapers suggest the day must be getting close when Labour’s management weakness can no longer be masked by their political management skills..

Can’t sail, can’t fly, can’t fight  as a verdict on 9 years management of Defence is devastating. 

Kiwis get half the pay of Aussies in the same jobs has the same message.

Reporting on SOE’s ‘lacks transparency’ is a pathetic headline for a damning report of utter incompetence in managing the Crown’s businesses. Mark Weldon describes the disclosed return on state businesses as "an absolutely disgraceful performance". The Select Committee says mildly that the government does not know how it is performing because performance and public accountability were not considered relevant or important.

More pithily the DomPost quotes a research analyst saying the private sector could not do a worse job than CCMAU "even if we were drunk in charge". That is most unlikely to be the fault of the CCMAU officials. It will be a reflection of what they were asked to do (or more importantly not to do).

My post prompted by the DomPost editorial ‘Heart of the Mater’ covers health as another area of bad management. Over 9 years Labour has doubled spending and got less than a 5% increase in output.

Wellingtonians reminded of our health service disadvantage by the DomPost (we wait twice as long as Aucklanders for heart operations) will not be comforted by Thursday’s Herald editorial (though it explains why we’re being flown to Australia rather than Auckland)  Five years after an "efficiency reorganisation" of public cardiac services Auckland is getting 20% less done than before.

"This week, the Auckland District Health received a report that ought to put health officials to shame. The number of cardiovascular operations in Auckland has declined by a fifth in the five years since the move from Green Lane."

Businesses do get mesmerising leaders who lead into decline and failure. With careful information management, and schmoozing of their boards they often postpone being sacked until everyone outside their business can’t believe they are still in charge. Eventually they get oblivion.

Unfortunately MMP may preserve Labour’s poltical managers from oblivion. No doubt they’ll spend the next few years firing criticism at their successors, and being rehabilitated by their media mates.

The same journalists who’ve seen no evil for 9 years (barring what they see as a few minor slips and bad luck) will serve up every fault in National’s management as a headline catastrophe.

That’s the future. In the meantime this government must go for straightforward incompetence.

The DomPost editorial ‘Heart of the Mater’ draws on reports we’ve seen for years. Wellington heart patients are only half as likely to get timely surgery as patients elsewhere in New Zealand and our country is already behind first world norms.

These reports should have made Labour and Annette King unelectable in Wellington. But reports of disastrous mismanagement in Health are scarcely news, so inured are we to scandalous failure under Labour’s DHBs. 

Annette King is a teflon political manager. She slid from the Health portfolio leaving her successors to carry the can for the crises brewed on her watch (think Hawke’s Bay DHB) .

In Policing she offered the ‘phase of the moon’ as a cause as the Manukau murder spree went up a gear early this year. Mistrust of the political indendence and integrity of Police HQ is rife. Serious violent criminals can scoff at law enforement.

Her failures kill people. She must wonder herself at her own political survival.

I thought I’d never see:

Exposure of the political hypocrisy in the State owning and promoting gambling, while pretending concern for consumers and investors by loading securities and finance businesses with useless regulation.

Moreu in the DomPost skewers Judith Tizard’s claim to be "appalled" by a weekly interest rate of 8%.

Perhaps Ms Tizard is appalled. But what has she done in her Consumer Affairs portfolio about those responsible for peddling far less useful "investments" with far worse rates of return? Nothing, because they are her Ministerial colleagues.

Patronising regulators have managed to destroy equity fundraising for "start-up"  businesses with securities law that would consume a minimum of $50k and up to $200k to raise between $500k to $5m, if anyone is foolish enough to try.

Jenny Morel’s complaint in yesterday’s Business Herald does not mention a major reason for having to rely only on rich people for funds, instead of being able to accept the gambling money of the thousands now searching for an alternative to bank deposits. She’s expressed herself strongly on that reason elsewhere.

Meanwhile the state uses sex, glamour and base greed to offer guraranteed negative return "investments" to those in our community least likely to assess them rationally against the alternatives, and often least able to spare the money.

I’ve just watched TV 3’s programme on Tai Hobson.

The fim-makers did an excellent job in portraying the dignity and determination of the man I got to know on the US trip to visit Sheriff Joe’s prisons and the California youth justice system.

The comment that the recidivism rate to tougher prisons seems not too different from ours missed the point. . Measuring a criminal justice system by its re-offending rate is like measuring a health system by its surgery rate. A better measure for health is life expectancy,.

For criminal justice the measure should be the crime rate, or the risk of victimisation, not the recidivism rate. It is generally accepted that prisons do not rehabilitate, and they may not deter criminals hardened into a pattern of crime. But  If a prison system discourages first offending so that the crime rate is low, it still works.

That seems to be the effect of the toughening up in the US. Their serious youth crime rate has plummeted. Sadly ours has soared over the same period.

The serious youth crime rate is a predictor of the future overall crime rate.