I’m supposed to be heading to the Grand Hall at Parliament for the launch of Ryan Malone’s book at 5-30 pm. Sadly I can’t go, because the Sergeant-at-Arms banned me from entering Parliament for 24 hours from 3 pm today.

With Catharine (my wife), John Boscawen, and a group of young people we put packing tape over our mouths to listen to H Clark’s session-opening speech from the visitors’ Gallery at Parliament this afternoon. We thought we’d help her to feel that things were heading in the right direction.

After all the Electoral Finance Act is designed to ensure the rude and ungrateful people  listen to their political masters without interrrupting. We were entirely silent (obviously) and respectful. Yet we were removed. I have to contrast that with the treatment I’ve seen of  haka and waiata. We did not wave our arms or shout threats.

Nevertheless we were firmly escorted out of the gallery, interviewed and told we could not return for 24 hours.

I felt sorry for my friends among the Parliamentary staff. They retain dignity despite what must be overwhelming incitements to repay Parliamentary behaviour in kind. Though we did not abuse any privileges, causing them awkwardness in having to deal with me was my only (tiny) regret.

H Clark will come to rue the day she forced through a law that criminalises attempts to engage in election debate from 1 January. The police are supposed to hunt down  any ordinary New Zealander who dares to publish encouragement to another citizen to vote for a party without the written consent of that party .

If we can ensure the true scope of the law is widely understood she’ll have more to worry about than some gagged citizens watching her in Parliament. The voters should send a far more resounding message.

Stuff’s report on 3 deaths attributable to Wellington hospital’s low heart op throughput has a curious omission. The DomPost print version covers what appear to have been lying responses by Minister Cunliffe to Heather Roy MP’s Parliamentary questions. Stuff omits the following:

“…Minister David Cunliffe was briefed in November about three ‘allegedly preventable deaths” and sought more information. Questioned by Mrs Roy in Parliament 3 weeks later Mr Cunliffe said he did not know about the cases she refered to.”

Perhaps Cunliffe had no reason to connect his knowledge and her questions. I hope so.

Avoidable deaths due to Labour’s anti-private sector dogma are frequent.  Ministerial denial of knowledge should be the gripping part of that story.

 Our public service can not remain incorruptible if their bosses face no consequences for lying. Nine years of “superb political management” has done for our public morality if bare-faced Ministerial lies are now disposable trivia. 

What happened to headlines like “Minister in cover-up?” or “Minister’s job on line for lying?”?

As a commercial lawyer I’m sickened by the left’s sanctimony toward business. Labour love passing laws they could never satisfy in their own conduct. They lie happily, yet business people (properly) face prison or huge fines for faulty prospectus statements.

Last week Cathy and I walked the Routeburn with a dozen friends. We were, and felt , on top of the world. Just so lucky to be able to spend time like that, nearly alone in vast landscapes, swimming in crystal clear frigid lakes and streams.

My son encouraged us. He did it with friends over the New Year, in jandals because my boots he borrowed gave him blisters.

Tim and Gillie Deans have invited us to Canterbury’s “minidayout” on their farm next Sunday. When the weekend news is dominated by youth pleasure in cruelty, I’m delighted to focus on youth pleasure in doing good.

Plainly such an event takes enormous organisational effort.  In this case its for the Brainwave Trust, a charity promoting the critical importance of properly feeding and stimulating infant brains.

The day promises vintage Canterburiana, including for the auction “Crusaders tie signed by Robbie Deans — “Unique in that very few were ever produced, and none available now.” Value – inestimable”

My list taken from January violent crime headlines illustrates the key difference between our crime risk as a New Zealanders, and the risk in other English speaking countries. The January crimes come from all over the country. This is no anomaly. Outside the ghetto of Manukau we are more at risk of bashing, burglary, robbery, rape and murder in provincial areas. 

People in comparable countries are most at risk in their biggest cities.

The difference is so great that even the Manukau figures can not bring our national averages within international norms for the relationship between city and other figures. Your risk of being a victim of serious crime in Wellington is a little over half that of a resident in a small town in Bay of Plenty or Northland, and two thirds of a Hawkes Bay dweller. In one recent year the Central Police district (including Wanganui, and Manawatu) murder rate per 100,000 matched that of New York. That was a blip, but the underlying violence in those areas is not.

New Zealand’s rural crime suffering risk seems to be correlated with one factor – the life patterns Alan Duff described in “Once Were Warriors”. Maori are victims and perpetrators in gross disproportion to their numbers.

But when our leafy suburbs, and Wellington, are comparatively safe, it is little wonder that the anointed who make our criminal justice rules care so little about victims. They rarely meet them.

My January list also illustrates the other feature that should most worry us.  We have a serious crime wave on the way. Ignore the “dont worry” message from the idiots who cite declines in reported total crime. The ICVS figures due out this month will confirm that it is probably the result of weary resignation and thus non-reporting.

Serious youth crime is climbing in New Zealand.  Youth crime figures tell us the future. It’s not rocket science. Truly bad young people usually get worse. It is nice to live in a country that insists on talking about “interventions” and rehabilitation, and even trying to do it. There is such a thing as rehabilitation, but the spontaneous rate is low, and it is pretty much unaffected by all the feel-good stuff.  The universal international experience is that once serious crime is a life pattern, laid down young, it only stops while the criminal is locked up, until he gets old. Old used to be 35. Fifty is the new 35.

That differences leap out of comparisons between our reported crime figures and the findings of the International Crime Victims Survey.

Look out for the latest ICVS release scheduled for later this month. Surveys are organised every four years by the Dutch government for the participating countries (most of the countries we’d compare ourselves with including Aus, UK, US, Canada, France, Japan). They allow for direct international comparisons of crime risk. That can not be done from police or court reports. Long series victim surveys are also regarded as the most reliable measures of changes in crime rates.

 NZ opted out of the ICVS for 1996 and 2000. I dogged Phil Goff for the reasons when he was Minister of Justice. I did not believe the only explanation  – cost. It emerged from follow up questions that opting out saved about $80,000 on a then $1m project every four years. Would it surprise you to learn that we had not been trending well in the previous surveys?

NZ did its own survey in 2001, on a basis not comparable to the international survey. I used to hound Mr Goff for the results of that. They were mysteriously delayed by a year, until  too late to affect the 2002 election.

I believe Mr Goff had taken fright from Tony Blair’s experience in their preceding election when the UK figures from the ICVS shocked Britain. Brits realised for the first time that on many measures the UK had become materially more crime ridden than the much despised US. New Labour got very active in crime policy.

Notwithstanding, on serious indicators other than murder the ordinary Brit is now at more risk of violence than the ordinary Yank (the significance of “ordinary” is that high murder rates in the US are materially affected by concentrations in 7 central city districts where drug dealers and other criminals kill each other).

We opted back in to the ICVS for the 2004 survey. In April 2006 our results were reported separately.

It attracted astonishingly little attention. Despite the introductory waffle it is devastating  to any claims of any material improvement.

The results of the 2004 field work for the latest ICVS were expected in mid 2007. The ICVS website now suggests late this month. The government must already know what it will say. I hope the “unexpected delay” is not a result of governments,  including ours, trying to influence the comparative conclusions.

I think we can expect it to tell us to be at least as humble to the US as the Brits. From other comparisons we come out worse than Aus and the UK on serious measures, and especially the exposure of young people. The April 2006 report correlates with a growth, not decline in serious youth violence.

By way of comparison, recalling figures last studied some months ago, youth murder in the US over 10 years declined from around 1800 per year to under 700, 80% of that decline being in the category ’stranger murder”.

Expect howls from the knee-jerk anti-Americans when people start asking why we are more often burgled and bashed than them.

“Austrlian Women’s Rugby League calling for applications for the coaching & management satff
: Austrlaian Women’s Rugby League Inc.

From “Leaguenet” the otherwise excellent Aussie ARL and NRL site. Once would be forgiven, but twice? Fiji would be an easier name.

“Prime Minister Helen Clark today outlined new government policy for all young people to be in school or some other form of education or training until the age of eighteen.” H Clark will be grumpy tonight. She’s made a bad start.

She knows National’s current strategy is a match racing election. Someone’s told her that in match racing the competitors track each other turn for turn. Perhaps Mr Rudd told her “don’t let daylight between you”.

But she’s not realised that it only works when you’re behind if your matching move is snappier than the leader’s. 

Her announcement should have been substantially modified when she found out that John Key had both sticks and carrots for rotting youth. Her “everyone at school till 18” policy does nothing about the ones who don’t want to be there, or for whom its a waste of time.

It has none of John’s hardheadedness about life on the benefit for under 18s who won’t work or study.

So if she’s lucky her policy will just be a fizzer.

I predict it will be worse than that. It shows the Labour bossiness the public are now wary of – relying on telling unwilling people what to do (stay at school) but without any effective sanctions for those they are too scared to deal with, who’ll scoff at the law.

All these years of thinking the “fashion police” were mythical.

I hope for their sake the Police have a clear chain of authority for this idiotic announcement.

Presumably they can blame stadium management, or the Sevens promoters, or local government. Surely they must be responding to some prude who has the legal right to decide the conditions of entry to what is (for the event) “private property”. I can not believe that Kerry Prendergast has been drawn in to this nonsense.

If this is instead a Police initiative it reinforces their status as an organisation lost and bewildered. In terms of offence to sensitive souls the hero parades and boobs on bikes events  – on public roads – would warrant Police attention long before Borat’s fashion.

If only they’d concentrate on bad people and leave foolishness for social sanctions.

PS I’ve not forgotten to identify the distinct features of NZ serious crime statistics. Too busy to do it justice, so trivia has supplanted it till tomorrow.

Sue Bradford wants Family First prosecuted for its weekend ads listing Police threats to parents. She claims Family First have spent more than the $50k in total that a referendum promoter can spend letting citizens know about a citizens initiated referendum.

This is the same Sue Bradford who thought the Government’s spend of $11.5m on propaganda for the Greens “Buy Kiwi Made” campaign was not enough to get the message across.

$50k today would not even  launch a campaign for a new dog roll. Marketing experts say people need to see an ad six times before the topic starts to register in public consciousness, let alone understand any detail. Bradford knows that. 

There’s a simple explanation for her screeching on this issue. She wants political debate confined to politicians, or under the control of the media gatekeepers. She believes most of the media share her views of what is “appropriate”.

For Bradford paid advertising  must be stopped by the Police even when it is paid for by thousands of concerned working families, because paid advertising bypasses editorial control of what should get public oxygen.

Some young people support the Greens as a  fashion statement. But without Rod Donald they are not just fluffy-minded reminders of what politics might be if the world worked as children wish it did.

Sue Bradford can be pleasant. She is dedicated. For her,  marxist toughmindedness is a duty.  The ends justify the means even if that meant lying about what her law meant. She would regret trashing free speech, but denying the masses the right to communicate with each other their misguided concerns about what their political masters are doing is just an unfortunate price to be paid for ensuring they are not misled by bad elements.

Stuff reports the 10th homicide investigation for the month. Already that is nearly 50% higher than our normal monthly average.  If it continues we’ll be higher than every other country we’d care to compare ourselves with, though still below the US.  

After the ninth homicide The Herald listed them and obtained comment from a criminologist. She pointed out that the Christmas period often sees more stress. This month’s rate is almost certainly anomalous. 

The government will point out the abnormality when Parliament reconvenes. They’ll blabber about the fall in overall reported crime. The government won’t mention, however, that this reported fall is inconsistent with the results of the most recent government victimisation survey (internationally victimisation surveys are accepted as being more reliable than Police reported crime stats) and almost entirely a result in a drop in reported theft – in turn a result of victim discouragement. 

But even if the reported drop was real there is still reason for grave fear.  First, changes in homicide rates are recognised internationally as the most trustworthy measures of success in crime fighting. Homicide is almost always reported in every country.  Two other features of the New Zealand crime figures should panic the authorities.  If you’ve been able to bear reading the reports your impressions might point to the disturbing differences between our figures and the figures from countries more successful in fighting crime.  I’ll post on them tomorrow. See if you’ve noticed them already. A clue – it is not the predominance of women among the victims. 

Saturday’s Herald reported: Police say violent aggravated robberies occur so frequently in Auckland that they are not surprised someone has been killed….It would not be unusual to have one or two of these robberies of dairies or similar liquor stores or service stations each day…..Mr Gutry said South Auckland was not the only place where the violence was occurring – Auckland City reports aggravated robberies (defined as theft accompanied by violence) most days and the North Shore about every fortnight.”

A scan of the Herald’s assault and homicide tag entries this month discloses the following:

1 Jan – Bashed Palmerston North woman fighting for life (19yr old), stranger gunpoint sexual violation of New Plymouth woman (18 yrs)

2 Jan – Man bashed in face with hammer by 3 youths who steal car

4 Jan -Rotorua teen stabbed in “cowardly, senseless” gang attack, Banks Peninsula policeman bashed on home doorstep

5 Jan – Tahani Mahomed (baby) death from abuse

7 Jan – Man shot in head near Taupiri School, investigation of NZ woman’s complaint of rape on New Year cruise liner 

8 Jan – Second assault and robbery in Taradale streets in a month

< 9 Jan – Sophie Elliott (19 yrs) murdered in Dunedin10 Jan – Police investigating death of woman (33 yrs) in Porirua Mongrel Mob HQ

13 Jan – Christchurch man sitting in car attacked (knife and punches) and robbed by three men

14 Jan – North Shore bashing/robberies of two couples, three Manukau people injured by frenzied home invader

16 Jan – Armed Ngongotaha home invasion

16 Jan – Police investigating Hutt Valley High bullying including anal penetration after school fails to report

17 Jan – Ghastly murder of Karen Aim in Taupo

18 Jan – Tauranga woman stabbed in her home

22 Jan – Clevedon river finding of weighted woman’s body

22 Jan – Suspicious death investigation starts after Papamoa woman’s body found in house

23 Jan – Tokoroa chainsaw attack

23 Jan – Napier murder investigation starts after Chattrice Maihi-Carroll found assaulted then stabbed in home

25 Jan – Taupo 14 yr old charged for hitting 17 yr old girl 12 times on head with jagged rock 

25 Jan – Southland murder accused also charged with violation of Kaitangata girl (15 yrs)

26  Jan – 14 yr old charged with murder after Tokoroa man (22yrs) found beaten on street

27 Jan – Manurewa youth (15 yrs) stabbed to death.