I’ve ordered this book by Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler.

From reviews,  I suspect it will supply a major missing link in popular and political acceptance of economic insights – validating our disbelief  when urged to believe that laissez faire market choices always optimise community welfare, despite our personal experience to the contrary in our own lives. We can all think of external disciplines that have helped us to help ourselves.

Freedom’s cause has not been well served by denying the common sense that there are often better outcomes when authority nudges people away from self-damaging behaviour. Nudge will actually strengthen freedom as research supports persuasive mechanisms, but also urges opt-outs and other means of preserving choice despite official preferences. If extremists are intellectually marginalised,  trashing genuine freedom of choice may become less respectable.

I suspect this book will not sell as well as Freakonomics, but it could capitalise on the interest created by that book. It  could have more practical influence (if only because the authors are thought to advise Barack Obama).

I met Cass Sunstein in 1992, introduced as “our pet lefty” when we met at the University of Chicago staff club. I attended one of his ‘work in progress’ sessions (though I can not remember the topic). He would have no reason to remember my time there, but I but remember his sharp questions of Stephen Shavell, a visiting Harvard professor, about a then forthcoming paper on ‘efficient punishment’.

The dedication of that University’s professors to maintaining an intelligent interest in their colleagues’ work well outside their specialty interest, despite ideological differences, was absolutely inspiring. I went there with the honorary title ‘visiting fellow’ and came back considering more time in academia. That interest wilted promptly when told by the friends at VUW  of the PC intellectual scorched earth in their common room.  I hope that is changing as a generation rolls over, but have heard few encouraging reports.

Have you been sceptical of the argument that NZ businesses should reduce their carbon footprints because consumers will punish us if we don’t? Some have seen the argument as the fallback of those who can’t substantiate the climate change justification, but want us all to wear hair shirts anyway.

The Wall Street Journal reports research suggesting consumers will punish companies perceived as unethical, but not much reward those perceived as ethical. So even those who are not persuaded by good citizenship motives should do at least enough to avoid being singled out as baddies.

Doubters may claim that research using consumers’ statements about what they would do is not as good as research of actual buying behaviour. If that is a business’s excuse for doing nothing it could be a poor bet.

I’ve written to Superintendent Pieri Munro, Wellington District Commander, to ask whether we can expect “broken windows” policing here. The Christchurch Superintendant has announced  a “broken windows” approach for Christchurch. Commonly misnamed “Zero Tolerance”, it is the policy that returned New York to its current status as one of the most livable cities in the world, from being a crime hell hole.

It implements insights developed by Prof James Q Wilson. He explained why prioritising serious crimes did not reduce serious crime rates if the prioritising meant more tolerance of entry level crime.  Signs in a community that law breaking is common tell potential offenders that law breaking is unlikely to have much cost. Unrepaired broken windows (with graffiti) are highly visible symptoms of a lawless environment.

In two separate trips to the US I studied how the policy was applied by Commissioner Bratton in New York and (less successfully) now in Los Angeles. I visited John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Courts, the Mayors’ offices, and Police HQ’s. The most memorable hours were at one of the NYPD’s famous command conferences where police captains are held accountable for the crime and accidents in their precincts over the previous week.

New Zealand has become one of the Western World’s highest crime countries. Even so, Wellingtonians have been relatively safer than most other New Zealanders. Now bad signs are penetrating our consciousness. Violent youth crime is climbing. Future overall crime rates are determined by youth crime rates. Few change once a criminal pattern has been imprinted, so this is a serious signal.

Superintendent Munro has an effective drive on minor offences (largely alcohol ban infringements) in the central city. But a genuine broken windows policy is comprehensive.

It seems that vagrants now feel the law does not extend to Aro Park.  A young woman student complained to me yesterday the Aro Park crowd are terrifying flatters in the neighbourhood. Women are menaced as they pass, even in daylight. At night they’re now forced to get taxis from their door, because it is too scary to go past the undesirable area in the dark.

A sucessful Broken Windows policy does not just move low level criminals from area to area. It only works if there is a sustained and consistent message that the community and its laws are not toothless, that there will be no choice but to straighten up. In particular there should be no lawless places where kids can drift into those self destructive patterns. The only havens for incorrigibles (usually because of addiction) should be deliberately provided, and under strong management that does not tolerate offending by them (or against them, given that they are often bullied and brutalised in police no-go areas).

New Zealanders have finally accepted the connections between graffiti and the growth of crime hotspots. Now the Police in Wellington must be supported to eliminate all ‘no-go’ areas for routine enforcement of the law.

The Economist summarises why its hard to secure the great returns that should be flowing from energy saving. They describe why measures recommended by the McKinsey Global Institute  “all of which rely on existing technology, would earn an average return of 17% and a minimum of 10%”, but are not stampeded by businesses or consumers. 

A far-sighted friend, Chris Milne, years ago helped establish a business (Negawatt Resources Ltd) to help people access those gains. We engaged them to audit our house. Our gas cylinder was coming to the end of its life, and I wanted solar water heating. At that stage the costs exceeded the benefits.

I looked at it again when the Green’s subsidy scheme was announced. It made little difference, though I commend the intention. It is tempting to mock the complete lack of take-up of their incentives, but I’d rather work with Jeanette Fizsimons to develop a sceme that would work. Green policy frequently suffers from their lack of experience of business. They’d be much more successful if they abandoned their instinctive socialism to understand how people actually work. Working with people as they are, rather than how leftist ranters think they ought to be, would work better.

Recently we replaced the cylinder with the same again, (no solar installation). The old one failed while we were overseas. For two weeks the patient friends in our house went without hot water while plumbers were consulted and quotes obtained. The combination of equipment costs, regulatory requirements (apparently we would have been obliged to replace existing gas and water lines) and delays finally killed the idea. It would have cost almost three times as much to fit a solar assist, and our usage now would never generate a payback. 

If New Zealanders were allowed to trade like adults on prediction markets I bet there’d be shortening odds on our emission trading scheme being dumped in favour of a simple carbon tax.

The evidence is piling up (before the Select Committee as well as in every morning’s papers) that emission trading will suffer a very long settling down period, if indeed it gets the chance to mature.

There must be a serious likelihood that Labour will not be able to hold its majority for the Bill, as the risks become more apparent, of  measurement uncertainties, disputed exemption rationales, international confusion, scope for gaming, and rorts.

A carbon tax would avoid much of that, and postpone the tricky issue of agricultural emissions at least until other countries have shown what they are likely to do with them.  The Greens might even prefer to have something simple and comprehensive (as far as it goes), than a scheme delayed indefinitely by complexity.

I have not been following this closely enough to have a preference, but a prediction market could give a better steer than any other measure.

David Farrar links to the Sydney Morning Herald (“You only get one Helen Clark in your life”) chortling at the Toll’s besting of the the gullible Kiwi leaders pretending to be business people.

Here’s an extract from an email I got from a friend yesterday who was a very senior NZ Rail executive before it was sold the first time:

“Toll are laughing all the way to the bank. They have made a killing, their share price will take a jump because they have got rid of the “bottomless pit” ( rail infrastructure and passenger services ) and still retained the lucrative “ Freight Forwarding” business and get to stay rent free ( I think ) in the buildings they are currently in, how crazy is that. That is where the money is. I don’t think any passenger service in the world makes money, NZ Rail certainly doesn’t. If I was Toll’s competitors I would be up in arms.”

He went on:

“Clearly this whole move is an attempt to win votes, nothing more and nothing less. …. the Dom Post got it right this morning when they described it as a “ Billion Dollar Buy Back”. However, I think from experience they will find it to be “ Several Billion Dollar Buy Back “.

Cullen is saying it fits with Labour’s Kyoto commitments. How the hell is he going to “Green Rail “. The Rail Ferries use Sludge for fuel ( you can almost walk on it ) which is the most polluting fuel available so they will have to install what they call “ Scrubbers “ ( I think ) on the ships, that’s if they can. On top of that you have the huge amount of Diesel the Locomotives use not to mention the electricity to power their electric fleet. In fact they use so much power they tap into the National Grid. Then you have the Rail Heritage Groups who own and run Steam Locomotives around the country – a large business. It will cost the Government megabucks to comply with Kyoto. But then they won’t be worried because, come November, hopefully it will be your problem.”
I want to see some genuine analysis of whether rail is genuinely fuel or carbon efficient under New Zealand conditions.

With another family we have four railway wagons. I know how heavy they are, because we personally dug the holes and worked the jacks to put them on piles to be our bach.

There is no way that hauling 10 to 35 tonnes of steel (depending on type) up New Zealand’s steep hills can be as fuel efficient as a similar capacity truck, unless it runs mostly full most of the time. For passengers (people are a light load in a heavy vehicle) I suspect a bus would win under NZ average loadings.

If you’ve already received these by email circular, you won’t be sorry to take the time, and laugh again.

The Washington Post publishes theses winning submissions
to its yearly neologism contest, in which readers are asked to supply 
alternate meanings for common words.
 
The winners are:

1. Coffee (n.), the person upon whom one coughs.
2. Flabbergasted (adj.), appalled over how much weight you have gained. 
3. Abdicate (v.), to give up all hope of ever having a flat stomach.
4. Esplanade (v.), to attempt an explanation while drunk.
5. Willy-nilly (adj.), impotent.
6. Negligent (adj.), describes a condition in which you absentmindedly answer the door in your nightgown.
7. Lymph (v.), to walk with a lisp.
8. Gargoyle (n.), olive-flavored mouthwash.
9. Flatulence (n.), emergency vehicle that picks you up after you are run over by a steamroller.
10. Balderdash (n.), a rapidly receding hairline.
11. Testicle (n.), a humorous question on an exam.
12. Rectitude (n.), the formal, dignified bearing adopted by proctologists.
13. Pokemon (n), a Rastafarian proctologist. 
14. Oyster (n.), a person who sprinkles his conversation with Yiddishisms.
15. Circumvent (n.), an opening in the front of boxer shorts worn by Jewish men.

The Washington Post’s Style Invitational also asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or  changing one letter, and supply a new definition.

Here are this year’s winners:

1. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.
 2. Foreploy (v): Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.
3. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period.
4. Giraffiti (n): Vandalism spray-painted very, very high.
5. Sarchasm (n): The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn’t get it.
6. Inoculatte (v): To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.
7. Hipatitis (n): Terminal coolness.
8. Osteopornosis (n): A degenerate disease. 
9. Karmageddon (n): Its like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it’s like, a serious bummer. 
10 Decafalon (n.): The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.
11. Glibido (v): All talk and no action. 
12. Dopeler effect (n): The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.
13. Arachnoleptic fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you’ve accidentally walked through a spider web.
14. Beelzebug (n.): Satan in the form of a mosquito that gets intoyour bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.
15. Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a grub in the fruit you’re eating.

And the pick of the literature.
16. Ignoranus (n): A person who’s both stupid and an a–hole.”

Thanks to Grant Corleison

Its too rich for the government of H Clark and W Peters to be lecturing Fiji about freedom of speech.

It contrasts with their craven behaviour in China.

More to the point, who passed the EFA, to gag their fellow citizens for the whole election year, in the most important speech of all – on who is fit to hold the coercive powers of the state (and control of tax paid PR and advertising)?

Chester Borrows MP has the right instincts. He’s slammed the suspension of a policeman for email circulation of self mockery.

The kind of culture that suspends for such humour permeates from the very top. A healthy organisation welcomes humour when its people are unavoidably in high stress circumstances. For emergency services people, soldiers, and lawyers the coping humour will often be black.

But the grim prats in power fear the sound of genuine laughter. 

My post last weekend of the Danish Road Safety Council’s traffic safety spoof ran into the same culture, abetted by abysmal journalistic standards. With pursed lips the Herald reported ” a storm” erupting over the posting. The storm was one email from a Labour stooge purporting to be from a National voter but not verified when the journalist concerned called me. In all my subsequent email traffic I had only encouragement.

A brief scan of the comment string on David Farrar’s blog on the topic showed outrage from one Labour stooge. Virtually every other comment sliced him. His hypocrisy was fully exposed on NZ Conservative.

Some storm.

Thus Labour’s sour culture is faithfully reflected by the media establishment. Since the Electoral Finance Act my freedom of speech rests on journalist shoulders. I can’t  speak directly by mail, or print media to voters in my electorate. We depend on journalists’ judgement and integrity to detect and report fraud and hypocrisy. We rely on their scepticism.

Given my experience of it last weekend I can only look for a silver lining, and hope that young journalists’ willingness to be conned by ruling party tricks will serve a new team after the election at the top as dutifully as it serves the grim crew now ruling.

PS To be fair to the journalist concerned at least he told me he thought the video was funny. Some young ones are so thoroughly educated in NZ’s sour official culture that they’re pained by the things ordinary people laugh at.

Fascinating negotiation research suggests that the ability to understand your counterparty’s objectives while pursuing your own is more useful than the ability to know how he/she is feeling. A blog comment on the Economist article sums it up

I guess Michael Corleone was right ” it’s not personal it’s just business.”

That’s a pity. On a long ago recruiter’s psych profile I apparently ranked high on empathy.

At least the report does not suggest that you can’t have empathy and analytical strength.