On Q & A on Sunday I predicted the Reserve Bank’s drop in interest rates. Most commentary I’d seen before (and since) suggested the Bank would hold off change for a little longer.

I had no inside information – the RBNZ does not leak in my experience. But I reasoned that if there was near universal expectation of a reduction, market pricing and planning and spending decisions would reflect that expectation. Accordingly no behavioural benefit was secured from deferring the reduction, and the Bank would know that.

Ergo

Next time you need currency advice watch to the end of Q & A when I’m a commentator.